09.29.2025 - DC Download
Without a government funding deal, federal agencies will shut down after midnight on Tuesday. Democrats in Congress continue to push for a deal that avoids massive health care cuts in the coming months. But despite a looming health care cliff and full government shutdown on the horizon, House Republican leadership sent lawmakers back to their districts for the week rather than continuing negotiations. All eyes are now on the Senate.
We break down the dynamics to watch below.
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Senate
Nominations
The Senate this week has teed up final votes on the following nominee:
Michael Waltz, to be U.N Ambassador
Senate Committee Highlights
Tuesday Hearings
Examining Competition in America's Skies (Judiciary)
Briefing on Golden Dome for America (Armed Services)
Examining the Weaponization of the Quiet Skies Program (Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs)
The Future of U.S. Black Sea Strategy (Foreign Relations)
Wednesday Hearings
Examining the Taxation of Digital Assets (Finance)
Nominations of Scott Mayer and James Murphy to be a Members of the National Labor Relations Board; and Rosario Palmieri to be Assistant Secretary of Labor for Policy (Health, Education, Labor, & Pensions)
To consider various judicial nominations (Judiciary)
Issues to Watch
Showdown over health care cuts
The clock is running out as Congress seeks to avert a government shutdown that could start Wednesday morning, should lawmakers fail to pass a funding bill by the September 30 deadline.
Earlier this month, the House passed a short-term funding bill (H.R. 5371) on a nearly party-line vote of 217-212. Democratic leadership remains opposed to that bill, citing both the lack of Democratic input and Republicans’ ongoing efforts to gut health insurance premium support under the Affordable Care Act. Earlier this year, the GOP budget law slashed health care spending, including scaling back ACA tax credits. Now, the current measure fails to extend enhanced ACA subsidies that are set to expire at the end of this year – as Democrats have urged. Together, this could strip health coverage from more than 15 million Americans. Republicans in Congress have refused to extend this insurance premium support for working people, even though the public broadly supports extending them and Americans have already begun receiving notices about higher premiums.
The GOP-authored funding bill is now in the Senate, where 60 votes are required for the measure to pass. The Senate rejected the bill 44-48 earlier in September. Senate Democrats maintain that extending Affordable Care Act insurance premium assistance is non-negotiable for any funding deal.
NEW DATA: Congressional Inaction on the Health Care Tax Credit Will Hit Cancer Patients with Devastating Costs (Keep America Covered)
The administration looks to maximize a shutdown’s pain
In a significant departure from past shutdowns, during which many non-essential federal workers are furloughed (i.e., put on temporary leave), the Trump administration has directed agencies to prepare “reduction in force” (RIF) plans, or permanent mass layoffs, for staff employed under programs for which funding lapses, and are deemed “not consistent with the President’s priorities.”
Even without a shutdown in effect, the Trump administration has indiscriminately fired federal workers and ignored government funding laws. The federal government is already on track to lose nearly 300,000 workers by the end of the year. Democratic leaders have accordingly labeled the threat “nothing new,” while also underscoring that it is an attempt to “punish hardworking families.”
The threat of large-scale firings also clarifies the stakes of the current showdown. Ultimately, the current spending fight isn’t just about keeping the federal government up and running, but whether GOP lawmakers will choose to protect working people or force families to shoulder the cost of mass layoffs and higher health care bills.
New Proposal Shows Congress Can Enact Guardrails to Ensure a Deal Is a Deal for 2026 Funding (CBPP)
What if the government shuts down? What if it doesn’t? (CPC Center)
Which Federal Benefits and Services Continue During a Government Shutdown? (NYT)
What We’re Reading
Ted Cruz Attempts to Exempt Big Tech From the Law (The American Prospect)
New Funding Increases Immigration Enforcement (NILC)
Larry Ellison Is a ‘Shadow President’ in Donald Trump’s America (Wired)
Elon Musk’s Chatbot Goes to Washington (NYT)
The teacher pay penalty reached a record high in 2024 (EPI)
Key Dates
September 30: Fiscal Year Ends
October 1: Yom Kippur Begins
October 13: Indigenous Peoples’ Day
October 31: Halloween